If you live in the west end of the county and your children attend Bristow Run, Buckland Mills, Cedar Point, Glenkirk, Victory, Ellis, Nokesville, or Tyler Elementary, the boundary plan for your school will change. PWCS will recommend plans 5b and 6a to the PWC School Board for new elementary school boundaries (see here for plans).
Enrollment numbers at each school under both plans are similar. Because enrollment is so difficult to project and becomes increasingly inaccurate the further out you go, we looked at enrollment projections for 2013. By 2013, under both plans 5b and 6a, enrollment at Wood and Cedar Point is projected to be between 100 and 110% of capacity, enrollment at Linton Hall, Bristow Run, and Glenkirk is projected to be at or below 100% of capacity, and enrollment at Victory, Nokesville, and Tyler is projected to exceed 120%.
The major differences between the plans are (1) enrollment at Ellis and Buckland Mills, (2) demographics at Ellis, and (3) extended bus rides for Lake Manassas Children.
Enrollment at Ellis and Buckland Mills
Under plan 5b Ellis will be at 120% of capacity while Buckland Mills will be at 106% of capacity in 2013. Under plan 6a Ellis will be at 95% of capacity while Buckland Mills will be at 127% of capacity in 2013.
Demographics at Ellis
Both plans increase the percentage of Limited English (LEP) and Economically Disadvantaged (ED) students at Ellis. LEP enrollment at Ellis will increase from 40% to 48% under plan 5b or 61% under plan 6a. ED enrollment at Ellis will increase from 49% to 59% under plan 5b or 67% under plan 6a.
Extended bus rides for Lake Manassas Children
Children in the Lake Manassas neighborhood currently attend Buckland Mills Elementary. Plan 5b will move those children to the Linton Hall School, which will require longer bus rides. VDOT currently estimates that those rides will be 9 minutes longer, but notes that those times might be significantly longer with construction on Linton Hall Road and Route 29. Plan 6a would leave Lake Manassas children at Buckland Mills.